Energy Future of Latin America for COP30

1. The Historical Context of the Climate Crisis and Hope in the Energy Transition

To understand why the international community views COP30 as a turning point, we must look back at the recent decades when climate change transitioned from being an academic hypothesis to a scientific truth backed by thousands of studies. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has released numerous reports since 1990, outlining the undeniable link between greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and global warming. In its most recent 2023 report, the IPCC warned that without drastic measures to reduce emissions, the global average temperature could rise by more than 2°C by the end of this century, with potentially catastrophic consequences.

Latin America, paradoxically, is not among the regions with the highest historical emissions of carbon dioxide, yet it is one of the most vulnerable to the effects of climate change. This is largely due to its geography and its dependence on sensitive sectors such as agriculture, fishing, and tourism. In recent years, the region has experienced increasingly severe extreme weather events: prolonged droughts in the Southern Cone, stronger hurricanes in the Caribbean, and accelerated glacier melting in the Andes.

However, amidst this troubling outlook, Latin America also stands as a beacon of hope, as it holds abundant natural resources that can drive the global energy transition. In 2023, the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) identified the region as one of the fastest-growing areas in installed renewable energy capacity, particularly in solar photovoltaic and wind power. Nonetheless, this potential remains far from fully realized, highlighting the importance of regional positioning in forums such as COP30.

2. The Call to Action for COP30: Why the Urgency?

The article by Energía Estratégica emphasizes the need for a unified regional position in the lead-up to COP30. The reason is clear: COP30, scheduled for 2025, could mark a pivotal moment in the dynamics of international commitments to mitigate and adapt to climate change. It is anticipated that following the discussions at COP28 and COP29, the window for climate action will narrow further, and the demands for drastic emissions reductions will intensify.

In this context, the ability to articulate a unified voice for Latin America and the Caribbean becomes vital. A coalition representing its interests and offering concrete proposals could play a crucial role in the global agenda. The region not only hosts the world’s greatest reserves of biodiversity but also possesses enormous potential in renewable energy:

• Solar: According to 2022 data from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Mexico, Chile, Peru, Brazil, and parts of the Caribbean exhibit exceptional solar radiation levels, reaching up to 2,500 kWh/m² per year in desert areas like northern Chile.

• Wind: Countries such as Brazil, Colombia, Argentina, and Uruguay boast extensive coastal and inland wind corridors with capacity factors exceeding 40%, far above the global average.

• Hydropower: The Amazon basin and the major rivers of the Southern Cone provide significant hydroelectric support. In 2023, Paraguay's electricity matrix remained nearly 100% renewable, thanks largely to the Itaipú binational dam.

• Biomass and Geothermal: Central American nations like Guatemala, El Salvador, and Nicaragua have tapped into geothermal energy, while biomass holds great potential in Colombia and Brazil due to their robust agro-industrial sectors.

The urgency lies in the fact that without a common position, these resources could be developed in a fragmented manner, weakening the region’s negotiating power. Conversely, articulating adaptation and fair financing proposals — where the voices of Indigenous populations and rural communities are genuinely represented — will only be feasible through a coordinated regional strategy.

3. Scientific Voices and Recent Data Reinforcing the Urgency

3.1 The Perspective of Geologists on Energy Resources

Engaging with geologists from the region offers profound insight into the subsurface and the availability of strategic minerals and reserves. According to the Latin American Geological Society (SGAL), the energy transition toward renewable sources will require a significant increase in demand for metals like copper, lithium, and cobalt. Several Latin American countries hold key deposits:

• Lithium: The “lithium triangle” shared by Argentina, Bolivia, and Chile contains more than 50% of the world's reserves. In 2023, Bolivia’s state-owned company, Yacimientos de Litio Bolivianos (YLB), projected production increases to 45,000 tons annually by 2025.

• Copper: Chile is the world’s largest copper producer, accounting for approximately 28% of the global total, according to the United States Geological Survey (USGS). Peru also plays a critical role, contributing about 12%. Copper is essential for manufacturing electrical components like wires and motors in wind turbines and solar panels.

The geologists' perspective suggests that the transition should not simply involve shifting from petroleum to renewable energy but must also include sustainable resource management. Responsible extraction and recycling policies will be crucial to avoid a "new extractivist dependency."

3.2 Contributions from Engineers and Researchers in Efficiency and Storage

Meanwhile, engineers across various fields (electrical, mechanical, civil) and materials scientists are developing technologies to address the historical challenges of renewables: intermittency and energy storage. Laboratories at institutions like the University of São Paulo (Brazil), the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM), and the University of Chile are conducting trials on sodium-based batteries and advances in supercapacitors that promise to revolutionize energy storage.

Data from Mexico's Institute of Electrical Research (IIE) reveal that in just a decade, lithium-ion battery costs have dropped by more than 85%. Projections indicate that by 2030, costs could decrease by another 40%, driven by new technologies and economies of scale. This trend is making energy storage increasingly accessible, enabling cleaner, more resilient, and decentralized electric grids.

In energy efficiency, recent studies in Colombia and Costa Rica have shown that demand management improvements and grid modernization can lead to reductions of over 20% in electricity consumption without compromising quality of life. These advances rely on smart grids, real-time measurement sensors, and user education programs.

4. Structural Challenges: Financing, Regulation, and Social Equity

Transitioning to a renewable energy model depends not only on science and technology but also on profound transformations in financing and public policy.

4.1 Financing: How to Fund the Transition?

Despite its potential, Latin America faces financial barriers. According to the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), annual investment in renewable energy infrastructure in the region must reach at least $250 billion by 2030 to meet the Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting global warming to below 2°C.

Multilateral organizations like the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) offer green project credit lines and guarantees, but innovative mechanisms and public-private partnerships are needed to bridge the gap. In 2022, only 12% of total energy infrastructure investment in Latin America was allocated to renewables, according to IDB data, a percentage still insufficient to sustain the transition.

4.2 Regulation and Intergovernmental Coordination

Regulatory frameworks across the region vary widely. While countries like Uruguay have advanced in auction systems and guaranteed renewable energy purchase agreements (PPAs), others lack clear policies. Political volatility and legal uncertainty also deter investors.

Regional positioning ahead of COP30 would require not only drafting declarations but also aligning regulations and setting joint emission reduction targets. The Latin American Energy Alliance could serve as a platform for harmonizing legislation and sharing successful experiences.

4.3 Social Equity: The Need for an Inclusive Approach

Moreover, the social element in the energy transition cannot be overlooked. By the end of 2023, over 18 million people in the region lacked access to electricity, according to World Bank data. Most reside in rural areas, Indigenous communities, and marginalized urban neighborhoods.

Large-scale solar farms and wind parks will mean little if vulnerable populations cannot access energy or are displaced from their territories. Conflict cases have been documented in Mexico and Honduras, where renewable energy projects have faced opposition from local communities citing a lack of prior consultation and harm to their livelihoods.

The true solution lies in strengthening citizen participation, respecting international agreements on Indigenous rights (ILO Convention 169), and implementing smaller-scale projects that ensure benefits for the most disadvantaged populations.

5. The Opportunity for a New Latin American Green Pact

The urgency of preparing a solid regional position, as highlighted by Energía Estratégica, opens the door to the conception of a “new Latin American green pact.” While ambitious, the essence of this initiative could rest on principles such as:

• Energy sovereignty: Ensuring that each country sustainably utilizes its renewable resources, reducing dependence on imported fossil fuels.

• Open and shared technology: Promoting technology transfer and co-creation of solutions driven by regional universities and research centers.

• Solidarity financing: Designing financial support mechanisms and South-South cooperation to enable less developed countries to accelerate their transition.

• Citizen participation and social justice: Ensuring the genuine inclusion of diverse social groups so that the transition benefits everyone and does not exacerbate inequality.

• Biodiversity protection: Establishing safeguards to conserve key ecosystems like the Amazon, Andean páramos, and Central American tropical forests.

As Colombian geologist Juan Pablo Márquez noted in a 2023 publication, “The energy transition in Latin America could become a spearhead for innovation and responsible practices that inspire other regions of the world.” His reflection underscores the need to balance the exploitation of strategic minerals with the protection of natural and cultural heritage.

6. Success Stories and Regional Learnings

To consolidate an optimistic vision that nurtures hope, it is worth illustrating successful examples already underway.

6.1 Uruguay and Its Wind Power Transformation

Just 15 years ago, Uruguay heavily depended on fossil fuel imports and suffered blackouts due to insufficient hydropower resources. However, a sustained state policy over multiple administrations promoted investment in wind farms. By 2023, wind power surpassed 40% of electricity generation, and combined with hydropower, it meets most of the country's demand at various times of the year.

The key to Uruguay’s success lay in creating stable contracting frameworks, 20-year PPAs, and state support for technical workforce development.

6.2 Solar Boom in Chile’s Atacama Desert

Chile boasts one of the world’s highest solar irradiation rates, particularly in the Atacama Desert. Since 2016, the Chilean government has implemented laws facilitating the construction of large photovoltaic plants and the free sale of renewable energy in wholesale markets. By 2023, Chile had over 11 GW of installed capacity in variable renewable energies (mainly solar and wind), according to the Ministry of Energy.

Local and international companies and consortia have turned northern Chile into an innovation hub, testing new storage technologies and working on green hydrogen production.

6.3 Energy Cooperatives in Mexico

In various rural regions of Mexico, energy cooperatives have emerged, driven by social organizations and academic institutions. These cooperatives, based on solar panels, small wind turbines, or biodigesters, allow communities to manage their own energy. This not only reduces electricity bills but also generates income for local development projects.

The National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM) and the National Polytechnic Institute (IPN) have been instrumental in providing technical support, offering training in renewable system installation and maintenance.

7. Technological Trends and Innovation Framework for COP30

Looking toward 2025 and beyond, experts in engineering and geosciences foresee several trends that will shape discussions at COP30 and in subsequent years:

• Green hydrogen: Countries like Chile, Brazil, and Colombia have announced plans to produce green hydrogen (H2V) on a large scale. By 2030, the region could produce over 25 million tons of H2V annually, supplying both domestic markets and exports.

• Carbon capture technologies: Universities in Brazil and private laboratories in Argentina are researching carbon capture and utilization (CCUS) technologies to convert CO₂ into useful products, such as advanced biofuels.

• Electrification of transport: While electric vehicle adoption in the region is still nascent, ECLAC projects that by 2035, at least 30% of public transport fleets in major Latin American cities will be electric. Bogotá, for instance, already operates over 1,500 electric buses.

• Digitalization of the grid: Integrating artificial intelligence and big data into grid management promises to optimize distribution, prevent losses, and facilitate the large-scale integration of renewables.

Each of these trends requires coordinated policies and regional readiness to share knowledge, build partnerships, and establish a regulatory framework offering stability and long-term investment protection.

8. The Cultural Factor and the Challenge of Public Awareness

The fight against climate change: despite the compelling scientific data, humanity does not always act.

The energy transition, with all its transformative potential, also faces cultural resistance. Many people doubt its benefits or view it as an unaffordable luxury.

At this juncture, environmental education becomes crucial: integrating renewable energy and climate change topics into school curricula, conducting widespread media campaigns, and fostering the involvement of community leaders. If citizens embrace the renewable energy narrative and understand the consequences of inaction, they will generate the necessary social pressure to demand bolder actions from governments and companies.

9. Conclusions and the Need for Immediate Action

In a scenario where time grows increasingly valuable and the margin to avoid the worst effects of global warming shrinks, the call to prepare a solid regional position for COP30 emerges as a historic opportunity. Latin America, with its biodiversity reserves, geological wealth, and renewable energy potential, can lead an exemplary transformation.

However, this transformation will not happen spontaneously. It will require aligned political will, citizen participation, adequate financing, and, above all, the cross-disciplinary collaboration of scientists, engineers, geologists, sociologists, communicators, and local communities. This moment of inflection also involves cultural reflection: recognizing that economies and societies must refocus toward harmonious development with nature.

Far from being merely a diplomatic event, COP30 provides the framework to commit to more significant action. The scientific data predicting worsening extreme climate events remind us that there is no time for delay. The region must raise its voice decisively, proposing clear and enforceable goals on the international stage.

It would be a mistake to think that the energy transition concerns only technical or governmental sectors. It transcends society as a whole: artists, academics, Indigenous leaders, entrepreneurs, and consumers all have the power to influence through their daily decisions. Perhaps, echoing a critical perspective, we should ask ourselves if humanity will have the wisdom this time to listen to itself and heed the Earth’s signals or continue down the path of collective blindness.

This may be the moment for the region to leave behind the ghosts of the past and unite under a horizon of sustainability. Given the magnitude of the challenge, collective awareness and political will must become the foundations of a different future, where clean energy is a right and not a privilege, and where nature and culture finally reconcile in an embrace essential for the survival of our planet.

Sources and Additional References:

1. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2021–2023).

2. International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA, 2022–2023).

3. Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC, 2022–2023).

4. Inter-American Development Bank (IDB, 2022).

5. Latin American Geological Society (SGAL, 2023 reports).

6. National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL, 2022).

7. Mexican Institute of Electrical Research (IIE, 2022).

8. United States Geological Survey (USGS, 2022–2023).